I think Big Player does not necessary need to push it up till 20000 for closing. They might have already short it for 500 pts or above. That mean their break even point is 19500 (consider they are not hedging).
And furthermore, they have another set of short put position in 19000 might also eating a few hundreds premium... so.. by adding this simple calculation , not necessary their need to close above 19500. Well this is only an assumption
However, like what HF Tsang said, it is true the bigger always hedge... so no point make such assumption unless ...it is very obvious comparing the rest of the position.
For example Jun has 7000+ contracts at 190Put area, what does it mean to you? Jun will be close 18500 or above? I think this is Yes because now Jun190Put still have a lot of premium then can eat and compensate what is going to happen later.
So by simply looking at this kind of position - it does not work all the time... since you also mention April position is also not reflecting the true support/resistance...
引用:
原帖由 davidchkchk 於 2010-5-25 13:50 發表 
差成800幾點....上吾上到呢???個人認為難度比較高.....
